The Illusion of the Surge
The downturn in violence over the last several months now appears to have more to do with a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and the Mahdi Army and less to do with an increased presence of U.S. troops.
The fighting right now is Shiite versus Shiite. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government Shiite (and U.S) forces battle Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s militias. Most Sunnis have been ethnically cleansed, but some remain.
President Bush says:
It was a very positive moment in the development of a sovereign nation that is willing to take on elements that believe they are beyond the law.”
And the Pentagon says the eruption of violence is a “by-product of the success of the surge.”
Uh, the eruption of violence has to do with the fact the military was never allowed to nip al-Sadr’s radical influence in the bud when we first got there…because the Larry, Curly, and Moe (Rumseld, Bush, and Cheney) didn’t know what the hell to do in Iraq once Saddam Hussein’s leadership was brought down. But it’s nice to know that the smoke rising from the US embassy is the desired result at the Pentagon.
Filed under: Iraq, Media, Politics, War, news, video | Tagged: Civil, Iraq War, Sadr, Shia, Surge
Is it that the military was not allowed to “nip al-Sadr’s radical influence in the bud” or is it that the occupation had no idea that al-Sadr needed a good bud-nippin?
And did he in fact need a bud-nippin?
If al-Sadr had clearly been in control, would that not have led to some kind of negotiated settlement, rather than Muslim bloodshed?
My understanding is that Muqtada al-Sadr was singled out at the very beginning as a potential problem by L. Paul Bremer. (Yes, Bremer the Incompetent who cannot account for millions of dollars.) If Bremer had had his way the cleric would have been “taken out.” But the CPA under Bremer and the military could not get on the same page.
Al-Sadr and his followers had enough control to organize humanitarian services around Baghdad after the city fell. He resisted just about all CPA efforts.
Now, if al-Sadr had been neutralized that doesn’t mean some other scenario wouldn’t have arisen that lead to civil war. Al-Sadr’s following was a natural target for Sunni resistance.
I think the Bush administration really had no idea what to do. They were in way over their heads with a monstrous hubris that forbid that resisted real resolution and restructure.